9 - Foresight exercises and scenario-building

Leader: ESADE Business & Law School

Objectives

This WP will identify scenarios for the future of global governance to provide the EU with insight as to the possible evolution of global governance in general, and the four issue areas studied in particular. The main aim of creating these scenarios is not to predict the future, but to produce a framework to use to analyse future risks and opportunities. This analysis will be converted into recommendations and strategies for EU policymaking in WP10. The foresight exercises and scenario building will be conducted in close cooperation with stakeholders to ensure accuracy and relevance. The WP leader will establish a detailed procedure to elaborate plausible, sound and relevant future scenarios for global governance and will consult regularly with a Scenarios Evaluation Committee, which will include a member from each of the project participants, other relevant experts in this field, and members of the project’s International Advisory Board. Thanks to the GLOBE project’s joint methodology (see WP2) applied in the empirical WPs 3-6, and the prospective approach taken in WP7 and WP8, this WP will be deeply rooted in the research carried out in the rest of the project, allowing it to benefit from pioneering empirical foundations and to go beyond the state of the art for this type of research. The WP’s objectives are to:

  • Identify future scenarios for Global Governance;
  • Discuss these future scenarios with EU stakeholders to ensure accuracy and relevance;
  • Confront these foresight exercises with the views of experts from other large global players such as the US, Russia, India, Brazil or South Africa to gain insights on other important actors’ approaches to possible evolutions in global governance.